On Saturday evening, the Hurricanes and the Islanders will open the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs—not just against each other but for the whole league. The Islanders are hoping the third time facing the Canes in the playoffs is the charm, as the Canes won the previous series in 2019 and 2023.
The thing is, as I’ll go into, if you’re going to try to dig into the history of those previous meetings or even the previous meetings this season, you’re not really going to get a lot of information about how this series will go. In the calendar year between the two playoff series, both teams have seen some substantial changes—on the bench and on the ice. In fact, a lot of those changes didn’t even happen in the offseason. Those changes are a big reason why last year experts were picking an upset and this year they...aren’t.
Let’s dig in.
How they got here
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes started the season with the bitter pill of being swept by the Panthers in the Eastern Conference Finals fresh in their mouth, and a pretty big overhaul of the roster to try and combat it. Out were players like Max Pacioretty, Mackenzie MacEachern, Paul Stastny, Derek Stepan, as well as deadline acquisitions Shayne Gostisbehere and Jesse Puljujarvi. In were free agents Dmitry Orlov, the return of Tony D’Angelo, and Brendan Lemieux. Jack Drury won a job out of camp, and together the Canes got off to a slow start, anchored by poor goaltending and the loss of Frederick Andersen due to a blood clotting issue. Fan favorite Antti Rannta was sent down to the AHL, and after a couple of brief appearances since, he’s been down in Chicago since the trade deadline—expect him back as part of the traveling squad.
Things started to change once the calendar changed to 2024, and a team that was battling for the wild card spot all of sudden was fighting for the top spot in the league. Pytor Kochetkov rounded into form, and Anderson returned to skyrocket the performance in goal. The performance was enough to where GM Don Waddell swung for the fences and added Jake Guentzel, the biggest prize in the trade market, to the team and took a flyer on Evegeny Kuznetsov. Guentzel almost immediately gelled with a line of Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, and the Canes gave the Rangers a fight to the end, barely missing first place.
New York Islanders
A couple of paragraphs can’t really do justice to the roller coaster of a season the Islanders have had. The offseason didn’t see nearly as much action in the free agent market, partly due to how hard against the cap the Islanders were. Instead they opted to keep a lot of the core in tact, and figured that they could continue to ride Ilya Sorokin to success. It wasn’t a great plan, as it just lead to streak after streak. A few games in a row won would lead to six or seven in a row lost. They stayed relevant for a while as they kept losing in overtime instead of regulation, picking up points, but it was clear they were stuck in neutral.
On January 20th, mired in yet another four game losing streak with only one being in OT, Lou Lamoriello fired Lane Lambert and brought in Patrick Roy behind the bench. The early results were not promising, and even at the end of February when they had a six game win streak, it was followed by a six game losing streak. Thanks to the rest of the middle of the Metro not wanting to take control, however, the Islanders were able to get it together at the end the season at 8-0-1, vaulting into a third place spot that had been controlled by the Flyers for most of 2024. What’s funny is they’ve done it recently not with Sorokin, but on the back of Semyon Varlamov. They probably aren’t happy with the break with that win streak, but they are in and against what they would think is a familiar foe.
Season Meetings
November 4, 2023: Car 4, NYI 3, OT
November 30, 2023: NYI 5 Car 4, OT
December 23, 2023: NYI 5, Car 4
March 19, 2024: Car 4, NYI 1
Each team gets to claim a 2-1-1 record against each other for the season—but you really can throw out a lot of the stats for the 2023 meetings. The Canes were still figuring things out, Pyotr hadn’t quite gotten into his groove yet, the Islanders...had a different coach, and Jake Guentzel hadn’t joined the Canes yet.
The thing is, you can’t really take a huge amount of stock in the March meeting, either. That one came in the midst of a slump for the Isles and Gunetzel was still a fresh addition to the team. Still, how the Canes were figuring things out with this new group is a big key, as is the fact that Pyotr faced more shots in this game from the Islanders than he did in the other two starts. The Islanders have yet to see likely Game 1 starter in Frederick Andersen, either.
Team Stats
Goals Forced-Hurricanes 8th, Islanders 22nd
Goals Allowed-Hurricanes 4th, Islanders 18th
Power Play-Hurricanes 26.9%/2nd, Islanders 20.4%/19th
Penalty Kill-Hurricanes 86.4%/1st, Islanders 71.5%/32nd
Shots per Game-Hurricanes 33.3/3rd, Islanders 30.1/19th
Face off Wins-Hurricanes 52.6%/6th, Islanders 51.3%/12th
By the numbers, you understand why experts are calling this a lopsided series. The Canes score more, allow less, shoot more, win more face-offs, and are just killer in special teams. The Islanders are going to hope this series is played more five-on-five than not, which could be a problem considering how they played last season.
Series Odds
Carolina Hurricanes -340, New York Islanders +280
The oddsmakers are seeing how lopsided both teams had played, and while its a two versus three matchup, it’s tough to ignore the streaky nature of the Islanders and how they ended up getting in more because other teams didn’t want to seize control. It’s also an acknowledgement that the Canes have more of a scoring punch this season than last, and the goaltending may be more even than it was last season.
Series Schedule
Game 1-Islanders at Hurricanes, Sat 4/20, 5 PM TBS/Bally’s
Game 2-Islanders at Hurricanes, Mon 4/22 7:30 PM ESPN2/Bally’s
Game 3-Hurricanes at Islanders, Thurs 4/25 7:30 PM ESPN2/Bally’s
Game 4-Hurricanes at Islanders, Sat 4/27 2 PM TBS/Bally’s
Game 5*-Islanders at Hurricanes, Tue 4/30 (TBD)
Game 6*-Hurricanes at Islanders, Thurs 5/2 (TBD)
Game 7*-Islanders at Hurricanes, Sat 5/4 (TBD)
*If necessary
On paper this looks like it would be a good first round opponent for the Hurricanes, but you really never know in the Playoffs. The Islanders come in hotter than most teams, and while the Canes have had a fight for the top spot these last couple of weeks, the Islanders have been fighting for their playoff lives since January. It’d be nice to see the Canes win a short first series for once, but nothing is a given in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
